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is a particularly illustrative example, as it was released on November 10, giving it two months to gain awards-season momentum — and awards-season controversy.

The film won big at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs and is now a favorite to win Best Picture and Actress.

is tied with the lowest odds in the Best Picture race, at 100-to-1, while Streep is the biggest underdog in the Best Actress category, at 80-to-1.

Neither Spielberg nor Hanks received an individual nomination at all.

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While those two months hosted just 20 of 80 Big Four winners (25 percent) from 1986 through 2005, they’ve produced 29 of 48 Big Four winners since (60.4 percent).

All the bolded titles on this chart had a release date in October or November.There are a number of possible explanations for this apparent disappointment.opened “so late in the calendar year that it struggled to woo voters for the various industry guild awards (the Screen Actors Guild, the Directors Guild, etc.) to even see the film”; this meant that it “fell off the map” and never was able to gain momentum.For every , for instance, were two pre-October releases that lost Best Picture during this span.) Movies from the first nine months of the year have been Oscar surprises more than stalwarts ever since: They’ve won only two of the past 20 Big Four prizes (Cate Blanchett for ) and haven’t won more than seven of 20 since 1997–2001.The graph below shows this trend, with the line denoting the percentage of the 20 Big Four winners from the previous five years that saw a pre-October release.As movies with an earlier release date waned in the Academy’s consciousness, Christmastime movies thrived.

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